Claimant Count in Edinburgh South for January
The roll out of Universal Credit is currently affecting the claimant count. Statistics published last month mean it is now possible to adjust for this effect.
· The total number of unemployed claimants in Edinburgh South constituency in January 2019 was 570.
· This represents a rate of 1.3% of the economically active population aged 16-64.
· The equivalent UK claimant rate was 3.1%. The UK unemployment rate, which includes people not claiming benefits and is estimated from survey data, was 4.0% in October to December 2018.
· The number of claimants in Edinburgh South constituency is 25 higher than January 2018 and 50 higher than December 2018.
· There were 65 claimants aged 18-24 in January 2019, 40 lower than January 2018.
Figures are not seasonally adjusted and are rounded to the nearest five. ‘Unemployed claimants’ include people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance or who are claiming Universal Credit and are required to seek work.
How do figures change when we adjust for Universal Credit roll out?
Universal Credit requires a broader group of claimants to look for work than was the case under Jobseeker’s Allowance. This has the effect of increasing the number of unemployed claimants after Universal Credit is rolled out in an area.
To adjust for this, new statistics were published last month. In addition to counting people currently claiming unemployment benefits, they included people who would have been required to look for work had Universal Credit always been in place. These figures have not been updated this month, and will next be updated in April.
Using this alternative count, there would have been 858 unemployed claimants in Edinburgh South in November 2018.*
On this basis, the number of claimants would have been 57 lower than November 2017, and 4 higher than October 2018.
These adjusted figures are likely to give a better indication of unemployment trends after Universal Credit roll out than the unadjusted figures above. However, they do not represent the actual number of people claiming. For more information, see our briefing paper Universal Credit and the claimant count or please get in touch. (*Note this is two months behind the unadjusted figures.)
Figures are rounded to the nearest five and are not adjusted for seasonal effects. We will shortly publish our monthly briefing paper People claiming unemployment benefits by constituency, which includes analysis of employment and unemployment nationally.
The next update will be on Tuesday 19 March 2019 (unadjusted figures only). Adjusted figures will next be published on Tuesday 16 April.